Two Old Codgers

How the World strikes us

I find myself increasingly depressed and apprehensive about the dreaded virus. Searching for crumbs of good news I turned to my trusty computer and these are some of the things I found. They make me feel a bit better, not because they reduce the seriousness but simply because they challenge some of the dire prognostications hurled at us by the experts.

A 'Model’ by the Imperial College London - used to inform government - suggests 500,000 could die if we do nothing. The warnings prompted ministers to announce on Monday the most draconian crackdown on freedom in peacetime. Professor Neil Ferguson, one of the lead academics involved in the modelling, told the BBC's Today Programme this week there was "no option" if 250,000 lives were not to be

Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser, said in an appearance before the Health Select Committee, that the hope was to keep the death toll below 20,000 by suppressing the virus. That would still be worse than those killed by flu, he said, giving a number of 8,000 per year.
He said limiting deaths to 20,000 would be "horrible" but still represented a "good outcome" given where we are.

Searching for UK deaths by flu on the internet I found these 'official’ figures.

Flu deaths 2014/15 34,000
Flu deaths 2015/16 14,000
Flu deaths 2016/17 17,000

The World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates that an average of up to 500,000 people die annually across the globe due to the flu. From the news this morning (Saturday March 21st) Worldwide Coronavirus fatalities surged past 11,000 on Saturday 21st March. More than 277,000 people have been infected, while some 88,000 have recovered so far.

Now get your carer to go and buy some more toilet rolls, make room on the shelves for another dozen tins of corned beef, six loaves of bread (Which will go stale) and some more cornflakes - just in case and then wash your hands.

PS. I haven’t used any images. Well, you never know where they’ve been.

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